Export Regulations Drag Down Chip Stocks, Boost Gold

The Morning Minutes will not be issued on Thursday April 17, they should return on Monday April 21st.

For the last several weeks, investors have been focused on tariffs as the main tool in a growing trade war between the US and other countries. Last night, the street was reminded that other measures can be taken to restrict trade. Nvidia announced that it is taking a $5.5B charge related to exports of some of its chips being restricted with a licence now needed to export selected technology to China and other countries.

Nvidia shares are down 6.3% in premarket action and are dragging NASDAQ futures to a 1.4% loss so far today. S&P futures are down 0.8% while Dow futures are flat. In Europe this morning, the Dax and FTSE are both down about 0.2%.

Gold is soaring again today as capital seeks out traditional havens in volatile times. The yellow metal is up 2.5%, while silver is up 2.4%. The US Dollar is generally weakening again today as the Euro gains 0.6%, the Yen rises 0.4%, and the Loonie climbs 0.2%. 

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to keep its overnight rate unchanged at 2.75% when it releases its latest interest rate decision at 9:45 am EDT today. Investors may look to the commentary for hints on whether the bank may be prepared to resume rate cuts after the federal election.

The US 10-year treasury note yield is steady near 4.35% ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech at 1:30 pm EDT this afternoon. Investors may look to Powell for hints on whether and when the US central bank might consider cutting interest rates amid tariff uncertainty. US retail sales came in strong this morning (1.4% over month vs street 1.3% and previous 0.2%).

Overnight, China announced stronger than expected GDP (5.4% vs street 5.1%), retail sales (5.9% vs street 4.2%) and industrial production (7.7% vs street 5.6%). Commodities are mixed on this news with Crude Oil up 1.0% and Copper down 1.0%.

In earnings news this morning, insurer Travelers beat expectations ($1.91 vs street $0.79, % premarket). After the close today, results are due from railroad CSX. Tomorrow brings results from Netflix and American Express.

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