Trade War Focus Turns To China

Stocks and currencies have stabilized overnight after President Trump postponed the implementation of tariffs against Canada and Mexico for one month after agreements were reached to improve border security. New 10% tariffs continue, however, and China has retaliated with new tariffs against some US goods and regulatory investigations against some US companies.

This morning finds Dow futures down 0.2% and NASDAQ futures up 0.3% after the Dow lost 0.3% and the NASDAQ lost 1.2% yesterday. China related trading was mixed. Shanghai was flat but Hong Kong rallied 2.8% and Copper bounced 0.6%.

Energy markets are giving back much of yesterday’s gains with North American trade war fears easing with Crude Oil sliding 2.6% and Natural Gas dropping 5.0%. Paper currencies are quiet this morning. Gold and Silver are both down about 0.1%. Caution does linger in some areas, however. Auto sensitive Platinum is down 0.4%, and a 2.1% decline has taken Bitcoin back under $100,000.

Overshadowed by the tariff and trade developments, US economic reports were positive yesterday as both ISM Manufacturing PMI and US Construction Spending beat street expectations. Canada Manufacturing PMI slowed from last month. Today is quiet for economic news, which resumes tomorrow with US ADP Payrolls and Service PMI reports.

Big Pharma earnings are out today. Merck beat expectations ($1.72 vs street $1.61) but is down 7.9% premarket after cutting its sales forecast. Pfizer ($0.63 vs street $0.47) also exceeded estimates as did Pepsico ($1.96 vs street $1.94). Alphabet reports after the close this afternoon.

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