In another sign that President Trump’s tariff and trade war is unlikely to end soon, Canada’s Liberal Party won a fourth consecutive term in office and third consecutive minority government after essentially running on a stand up to Trump platform. The opposition Conservatives, who had been leading in the polls earlier this year, gained a number of seats in Parliament, but their leader appears to have lost his own riding. The other three main opposition parties lost ground, as about 90% of seats went to the two main parties.
The Canadian Dollar has been volatile on election developments but has settled into a small loss of about 0.2%, which is less than other majors like the Euro, Aussie, Pound and Yen which are all down about 0.4% against a resurgent US Dollar. Gold is down 0.8%, while Bitcoin is up 0.5%.
In terms of equities, coming off of a mixed Monday, US index futures are mixed with Dow futures up 0.4% and NASDAQ futures down 0.2%. In Europe today, the Dax is up 0.6% and the FTSE is flat. The reaction from the tariff impacted auto sector has been mixed. General Motors is down 1.2% premarket after beating the street but indicating it is reevaluating its guidance amid the tariff war. Meanwhile, Canadian auto parts producer Magna International is up 2.9% premarket.
Canadian energy majors, including Suncor Energy and Canadian Natural Resources, are down about 1.5% premarket, while pipeline operator Enbridge is down about 0.4%. It’s unclear how much of these declines are related to the election and how much is related to a 1.4% drop in the price of oil today. Copper, on the other hand, is up 1.1%.
In other earnings news, UPS is up 1.0% premarket and Honeywell is up 3.7% premarket after reporting earnings. After the close today, results are due from Visa, Starbucks, and Booking Holdings. It’s a quiet day for economic reports which pick up tonight with China PMI reports and tomorrow with US and Canada GDP plus ADP payrolls and Chicago PMI.