Overnight, the People’s Bank of China capped off another weekend of summer surprises with a surprise 0.1% interest rate cut to 3.35%. In response to the news Hong Kong rallied 1.25%, while Shanghai fell by 0.6%. The reaction from other major Asia Pacific markets and commodities was bearish, however, indicating that investors view interest rate cuts not as a victory over inflation but as a sign of a weakening economy. Tokyo and Seoul both lost 1.1% overnight, while Sydney fell 0.5%. In commodity action, US Crude Oil is down 0.6%, while Copper is down 1.4%.
Europe is off to a more positive start to the week with the Dax and CAC both climbing 1.25%, while the FTSE is up 0.75%. US index futures are trying to bounce back from Friday’s selloff with Dow futures up 0.1% and NASDAQ futures up 1.0%. Gold is up 0.3% hanging around $2,400/oz.
Monetary policy remains in the spotlight this week. The Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday to decide whether to cut its benchmark rate again or go one and done on cuts like the ECB did last week. Their decision, and their outlook for the North American economy may provide some insight into whether the Fed may cut interest rates this summer and how many rate cuts investors can really expect for this year.
There are a number of notable economic reports out this week, including Flash PMI numbers on Wednesday, US Q2 GDP on Thursday, US Core PCE inflation on Friday, and North American housing data through the week.
Earnings season ramps up and broadens out this week. The US calendar is headlined by Big Auto (Tesla, General Motors* and Ford), Big Tech (Alphabet, IBM, Qualcomm), Transports (airlines and railroads), Big Industry (3M, Honeywell), Amazon.com, and others.
Earnings season really starts in Canada this week. Headliners include Suncor Energy, Cenovus Energy, Canadian National Railway, Rogers, Celestica*, Bombardier*, Loblaws (first quarter with potential impact of consumer protests), Canfor, West Fraser, Eldorado Gold, and others.
*Shares of General Motors, Celestica and Bombardier are held in portfolios managed by SIA Wealth Management.